Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Perils of Polling

Sure, it can demoralize enough Republicans that - combined with massive voter fraud perpetrated by Obama's ACORN buddies - Barack can win the 2008 presidential election. Of course, overconfidence by believing said crooked polls can lead to problems, as well. For one, it looks like Ed Rendell is starting to sweat out in Pennsylvania just a tad:

With Sen. John McCain making a new push in his state, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) "has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate -- as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton -- return to campaign in Pennsylvania," CNN reports.Said Rendell: "I don't want to be selfish. But I'm still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back.

We've talked before about the biases inherent in these polls; there's actually a lot more information that backs that up...first, how about a list of where all the polling headquarters are located:

Poll HeadquartersABC News 77 W 66th St, #13, New York City, New York
CBS News 524 W 57th St, New York City, New York
FOX News 1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York City, New York
Gallup 901 F St NW, Washington
DCHotline 88 Pine St, 32nd floor, New York City, New York
IBD 12655 Beatrice St. Los Angeles, California
Marist 3399 North Rd, Poughkeepsie, New Jersey
Mason-Dixon 1250 Connnecticut Ave #200, Washington DC
Newsweek 251 W 57th St, New York City, New York
NY Times 1 City Hall, New York City, New York
Pew 1615 L St NW, #700, Washington DC
Quinnipiac 275 Mount Carmel Ave., Hamden Connecticut
Rasmussen 625 Cookman, #2, Asbury Park, New Jersey
Reuters 3 Times Square, New York City, New York
Survey USA 15 Bloomfield Ave., Verona New Jersey
TIPP 690 Kinderkamack Rd, Oradell, New Jersey
WaPo 1150 15th St NW, Washington DC
Zogby 901 Broad St, Utica, New York

See a pattern? Yeah, all the headquarters are in deep blue territory (or "Obama Country"). How would this affect the outcomes of allegedly national polls? is obvious that the prevailing culture in this limited part of the country has an undue influence on the focus applied by these polling groups. Democrats, especially liberal democrats, are over-represented in the poll reports because the culture of New York and Northeast America over-represents liberals. Republicans, especially conservative republicans, are suppressed in the poll reports because the culture at the polling groups’ headquarters suppresses republican opinion.’s not at all hard to imagine the conversations between headquarters and the staff at these polling groups. They like Obama and expect him to win, so – what a surprise! – the polls they control reflect that same attitude.

It's all in how you ask the question. Having never been polled, I don't know firsthand, but institutional bias is a scientific fact. I cannot believe that Liberals in a liberal state can conduct an evenhanded poll in such passionate circumstances.

More: addition to party affiliation, various polling groups this year have produced polls out of demographic balance with Census norms for urban/suburban/rural participation, minority race representation, age, employment status, and income range. It should not be difficult to imagine how these manipulations might invalidate the results published by the polling groups.

....The thing most folks forget about polls which get published in the media, is that the polls' first need is not to accurately reflect the election progress and report on actual support levels; it's about business. A poll needs clients to survive, and the media - always - wants a good story more than they want facts.

And what of the dangers that may result from this liberal sloppiness? Classic Values has a scary scenario:

If McCain were to pull ahead of Obama (as he has four or five times before), wouldn't the Obama campaign be so scared that they would want the results either changed, statistically skewed, or somehow not reported?

... if they were skewing the results to make it look as if Obama was ahead when actually McCain was ahead, then a McCain victory would come as a huge and terrible shock -- a gut-wrenching one that would be bad for the country, because people would think that either McCain "stole the election" or else the voters were a bunch of dishonest "racists" who "lied" to pollsters.

That wouldn't be fair at all. Because the more dishonest the polls were, the more they'd help convince voters that an Obama victory was inevitable (thus helping Obama), and more dishonest any McCain victory would appear to be (thus inflicting maximum damage on McCain if he managed to win).

Yup. A nation torn asunder by a media that fed them nonstop lies. While some trumpet a 10 point Obama lead, others make certain realities clear:

State / today's margin /(last week's margin) / movement:

FL -2 (-5) +3
OH -2.8 (-3.4) + 0.6
NV -2.9 (-2.3) + 0.6
NC -1.5 (-1) - 0.5
MO -2.2 (-2.7) - 0.5
CO -5 (-5.5) - 0.5
VA -8 (-6.5) - 1.5

If McCain takes these states that fall within the margin of error (and assuming the loss of Virginia, based on the spread above), how does that wacky electoral map look on November 5th?

And thanks to the media, we'll hear whines about a "stolen election" thru 2012...

Regardless. Get your ass out there and vote, no matter how hard the media tries to convince you the game is already over...

Another blast from the past, here...everything old is new again!

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