Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Are we getting "poled"?

.....or, post #92 in my series of why Republicans should not be discouraged by the media from hitting the polls full-force come election day:

For what it’s worth, in 1996, when there was an enthusiasm gap between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll for Oct. 27-28 gave Clinton a 16-point margin (51%-35%), and the final poll gave him a 13-point margin. Clinton’s actual margin of victory was only 8-1/2 points. So, especially given the much larger enthusiasm gap this year, perhaps there’s reason to hope that the polls contain an even larger overstatement of Barack Obama’s support—in which case John McCain may be ahead.

So despite all of Clinton's enthusiastic support, he won by eight points, down 5-8 from the week before the election. And what is Barack's lead these days, 3-5 points?

More on how the polls are based more on the preconceptions of the polling companies then, you know, reality, from Mark Steyn:

...the number you get depends as much on the "turnout model" cooked up in the pollsters' office as on anything Mr and Mrs America tell 'em down the phone line.

So it might well be that those pollsters who are anticipating that this is the year that the quadrennially ballyhooed "youth vote" actually emerges are right. And those who say that the five-point turnout advantage Democrats had in Pennsylvania in 2006 will be a 15-point advantage this year might also be right. But half of this stuff is a turnout prediction masquerading as a poll.

A 15 point Democratic "polling advantage" has been yielding Obama a single-digit lead in the Pennsylvania polls. Not impressive; no wonder Ed Rendell is sweating.

More polling BS sniffed out by Steyn:

This was the one that caught my eye, though:

In addition to leading 50-42% overall, Obama also leads men 50-42% and women 50-42%.

Wow. It's raining men, hallelujah! Even in elections they lose, Republicans still win the guys: in 1996, Bob Dole won 44% of the male vote to Bill Clinton's 43%. And that's the Democrats' biggest share of the bloke bloc in over 30 years. So, if that 50% holds up for Obama, we're in for a seismic shift.

Or, alternatively, the poll's a lot of hooey.

Hooey. Just like Barack Obama.

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