Thursday, October 30, 2008

McCain Takes The Lead in Florida!

Democrats are partying a bit early this year (as they did in 2000, and 2004), especially since the early results from Florida may be a snapshot of what we see nationwide:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early

But how are those registered Democrats voting? Somebody get a sweat-rag ready for Obama's forehead:

But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

Wow. Even if it is tied (and although those polled have already voted, we'll assume some are still lying), we have quite a few "Democrats for McCain" here. Maybe that's why that even polls that factor in a 10% or higher Democratic turnout advantage still only show a 3-5% lead for Obama?

More good news from Florida:

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Even if some of those mythological "Obamacons" actually show up, what will the Republican advantage be here, somewhere along the lines of 45% to 35%? Still formidable among 1.2 million votes, especially if McCain is already ahead among the original 1.4 million early voters.

And those polls, again:

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida.

So if McCain wins Florida by, say, 3%, that would make the polls off by six points or better. You want to know why Obama is still scrambling aound the country? Oh, he knows it, even as he keeps the aura of invincibility around him...

How bad is it for Baracky? Let's put it this way, apparently even John Kerry (who lost Florida by almost 5%) in 20004 had better early turnout results than Obama:

Among 16 percent of Florida voters who said they had cast early ballots, Kerry received 56 percent of those compared to Bush's 39 percent.

Is it too early to call the election for McCain?

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