Yeah, I like headlining posts with Animal House references, and this is the second one in a week that refers to the same thing...the fact that the media is trying to tell us/sell us that the election is over - stay home, turn off the lights, await the coronation of the new king - when no such thing is true.
I referenced this in the aforementioned post, but Gateway Pundit makes it even clearer:
Polls this year have overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states by an average of 7%.
Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.
More on the exit polls...remember 2004?
...in 2004, exit poll data that began circulating early in the afternoon led to short-lived Democratic elation and deep Republican anxiety. By evening, some of President George W. Bush’s key strategists were frantic, emailing reporters at polling organizations to better understand the gap between what they were finding on their own and what the leaked exit polls indicated.
Oh, I remember 2004...
Ace has more:
Now, this raises a question that Politico doesn't address. If an "enthusiasm gap" is responsible for skewing exit polls, why isn't an "enthusiasm gap" responsible for skewing pre-election day polling?
Anyway, make of this what you will. An average error of 7 points for the One is amazingly high, though, given that usually the margin of error is around 3.5%.
And a confirmation of my "predetermine the outcome, and keep the righties home" theory:
"Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the 'McCain pulls even or goes ahead' poll." (And in Gallup, it was within 2 percent.) "That Obama strategist knows how much depends on the whole Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel approach —work with the media to demoralize conservatives, and keep the perception of a juggernaut going. But a day or two of a few bad polls, and that strategy backfires. The conservatives know they've still got a shot at this."
"A shot"? Even better than that, I'd reckon....