Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Republicans Lead Colorado Early Voting; Looking Real Good For Mitt...

Via the Colorado Secretary of State: 653,000 Democrats cast early ballots, while 688,000 Republicans tossed theirs in early, as did 547,000 unaffiliated voters.

Ignoring the 20,000 Greens and what-nots, you have the following percentages (very, very slightly rounded):

Democrats: 34.5%
Republicans: 36.5%
Independents: 29%

That gives the Republicans a 2% point lead in early votes.  Now apply the 57% Romney /43% Obama independent split seen in most recent national polls, and apply it to the current Colorado vote totals, and you get the following:

Obama / Democrats: 888,000 
Romney / Republicans: 1,000,000

Now let's look at the early voting totals for 2008, and see how the percentages panned out for the 1.7 million  votes cast:

Dem 37.7%:  641,000  (with Obama's 52% of Independent vote = 874,000)
Rep 35.9%:  610,000  (with McCain's 48% of Independent vote - 825,000)
No/Oth 26.4%:  448,000

So the Republicans went from entering Election Day 2008 with nearly a  50,000 vote deficit, to opening Election Day 2012 with a 110,000 vote advantage.  

That's a swing of 160,000 votes.

Here's the Colorado final results from 2008:

Obama: 1,216,000
McCain: 1,020,000

An Obama win by 196,000 votes.

Think we can dig up and additional 36,000 votes somewhere, in a year where hope and change has become fear and loathing, in a year when Republicans and independents appear willing to crawl over broken glass to vote Romney,  in a year where the magnitude of our folly grows clearer with every passing day?

Oh, you betcha.

Colorado goes Mitt.  In a walk....

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