Monday, November 05, 2012

Independent Voters Swinging Hard To Romney...

Based on the most recent polling numbers, here's where Mitt Romney stands with independent voters:

Rasmussen (+17)
CNN (+22)
Monmouth (+16)
ARG (+12)

In 2008, John McCain was -2 with independents, the electorate was +8 Democratic, and he lost 53%-47%.

Let's take the lowest number of pro-Romney independents above - Romney +12.

And then let's adjust the electorate to smooth out the historic aberration that was the 2008 turnout.  Here's a handy chart:

Jay Cost wants to call 2012 as a D+3, which I think hits it about right.  Normally, I'd go D+4, maybe better, but no matter how much Barack shrieks about revenge, it doesn't seem as if the dispirited Democratic party faithful are as motivated by fear and hate as they were by hope and change.

So you tell me:  In a year in which the independent vote is swinging from D+2 to R+12, where the Democratic electoral identification will be cut in half, at a time when the Republican/Independent voters are motivated as can Mitt Romney lose the election?

He can't.  And he won't.  So relax.  And feel free to start planning your victory drink; and have your celebratory toast ready to go by no later than 1130pm tomorrow night... 


Tweetmebren said...

Your lips or shall I say fingertips to Gods ears! I banking on Mitt for a win. :)

The JerseyNut said...

Every poll that shows a tie or a win for Obama uses an exaggerated Democratic counterweight against Romney's huge independent advantage. CNN's poll, released yesterday, shows a R/O tie..with a D+11 skew!

No fears, Bren....we'll be partying tomorrow like it's 1980! Or at least 2004...

Anonymous said...

If I may throw a little cold water? Speaking of 2004, didn't they say Kerry could not lose due to his lead among the indys?

I am a Romney guy too, but I am much more nervous!