Wednesday, October 20, 2010

No Need To Sweat Those Pat Toomey Polls in PA...

Don't worry, Pennsylvania voters haven't lost their mind. Only the pollsters have.

This latest poll is causing some on the right to break out in a sweat:

Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.

It’s hard to explain Sestak’s latest apparent comeback.There’s a sense that faithful Democrats are paying closer attention in the closing weeks as President Barack Obama crisscrosses the country making the case for keeping Democrats in charge...

Unlikely. The reason you need to clutch at straws such as "The most unpopular president in decades is helping the Democratic candidate" is because there is no comeback. There always seems to be strange polling in the final stretch before an election, especially when it is the Democrat who is trailing badly.

Case in point - the following poll/piece from October 27th, 2009 - just a week before the 2009 New Jersey governor's election:

Don’t get too excited about a Suffolk University poll that has Gov. Corzine leading Republican Chris Christie by 9 points, 42-33, with Chris Daggett getting 7 per cent.....

Yeah, because all the Democrats were finally paying attention! The nonstop negative ads that Jon Corzine were running - outspending Chris Christie by 3-1 - were taking their toll. The conservative pundits wailed, but with a smirk and an unspoken "told ya so - a Republican cannot win in Jersey" (The Campaign Spot's Jim Geraghty, who I greatly admire, was one of the biggest offenders).

Seven days later, Christie went on to defeat Corzine by 3 in a state where Democrats had a 600,000+ voter registration advantage. Because the people of New Jersey were fed up and had enough.

Just like the people of Pennsylvania. Watch for it to be repeated all over America on 11/2.

You heard it here first: If A Democrat does not have a lead outside of the margin of error on election eve, they're toast...

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