Friday, October 29, 2010

NJ-12: Scott Sipprelle Leads Rush Holt By 1 !!

Can one of the most despicable liberals in Congress, Rush Holt of New Jersey's CD-12, be in trouble?

Oh, yeah. Via MoreMonmouthMusings

According to a National Research poll just out of the field, Republican challenger Scott Sipprelle leads Democrat Congressman Rush Holt 43%-42% in New Jersey’s 12th congressional district as we head into the final weekend of the 2010 mid-term campaign. The remaining 14% are undecided.

Some additional data:

 Sipprelle leads 46%-32% among self identified Independent/unaffiliated voters.

 Among those who identify themselves as the most likely to turn out, Sipprelle leads 47%-41%.

 Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Sipprelle leads 44%-42%.

 Among voters who have formed an opinion of both candidates, Sipprelle leads 52%-40%.

 New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has a very strong image in this district, with a 60% favorable rating and a 34% unfavorable.

 Among the voters who are favorable to the Governor, Sipprelle leads Holt 66%-23%.

 The generic ballot shows a five point GOP advantage, as the generic Republican leads the generic Democrat 45%-40%.

As undecided voters become late deciders this weekend and early next week, we expect the race to continue to be tight, with turnout becoming the final, crucial determining factor. But if current turnout holds and Republicans continue to exhibit an enthusiasm advantage in this district, we give the edge to Sipprelle.

In a wave year, the undecideds break for the challenger. And again, let's look at the dramatic electoral shifts in Rush Holt's
two key counties in the last two years:

Mommouth General 2008

Republican - McCain 160,433 51%
Democrat - Obama 148,737 48%

Monmouth Governor 2009

Republican - Christie/Guadagno 128,328 62.19%
Democrat - Corzine/Weinberg 64,315 31.17%

Middlesex General 2008

Democrat - Barack Obama 193,812 61%
Republican - John McCain 123,695 38.8%

Middlesex Governor 2009

Democrat - Jon Corzine 75,200 44.21%
Republican - Chris Christie 81,947 48.17

As I said earlier today, don't sweat the small lead, rejoice in the momentum! Just over two weeks ago,
Holt led by 5 . Now he's down 1? Down by 3 on Tuesday, baby...

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