Monday, January 11, 2010

Scott Brown, The Polls, And Crossing Lines

So Public Policy Polling puts out its poll on the Massachusetts Senate race, and gives us Brown +1. The Boston Globe puts out a poll on the same race, and comes up with Coakely +15. WTF, you ask? Me to0. Some thoughts from

Both [polls] show a dead even race among the most interested and certain voters, while Coakley leads by huge double-digit margins among all other voters.

...My assumption is that the "
if you do not intend to vote...please hang up" automated methodology employed by PPP produced an effectively tighter screen and, thus, a likely voter sample closer to the "certain" or "extremely interested" subgroups of the Boston Globe and Rasmussen polls.

Not to be obnoxious, but if you don't vote, you don't count. Your opinions do not matter and your complaints fall on deaf ears. The polling of "all adults" almost always provides a huge advantage in the results for Democrats, and while the Globe did not poll that way, it certainly appears as if they could have screened their subjects better.

And much like in the recent Republican win in
New Jersey, this race could actually be decided by the independents, who make up 51% of the state's electorate - a group the Globe vastly undersampled: turns out the Globe only polled 81 independents, while PPP polled about 290. Such a difference in sample size could explain the wide difference in results among independents, and perhaps lend more credence to the PPP numbers among this group...

Bottom line: Turnout, turnout, turnout....and lines. These two lines in particular, and getting them to cross:

UPDATE: Do the voters of Massachusetts need a better reason to vote Brown than this?

... I know it’s crazy to think Massachusetts would send a Republican to our nation’s capital, but it is equally crazy that the Boston Red Sox would be swept in the ALDS and now the New England Patriots would lose in the first round of the NFL playoffs. The only solution is to shake up Washington D.C. removing the stranglehold the Democrats have on our politics which obviously translates to our sports. It’s up to you Massachusetts. Send Scott Brown to the United States Senate and return to the glory days of your sports franchises, or send the status quo, Martha Coakley, and continue to live with the defeats of Red Sox Nation and your beloved Patriots.

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