Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Not Enough Democrats in Jersey To Save Jon Corzine?

New polling data shows increasingly bad news for New Jersey's embattled Democratic governor, Jon Corzine:

In the first of what will be monthly surveys on the New Jersey race for
Governor, Public Policy Polling finds incumbent Jon Corzine trailing Republican
challenger Chris Christie 51-41.

Christie has an unusually lopsided 60-26 lead with independent voters. He’s also
benefiting from a remarkable level of party unity- he has a 93-3 advantage with
Republicans while Corzine is up only 75-16 among Democrats.

Corzine has solid leads with minority groups in the state, but is hampered by a staggering
60-33 disadvantage among white voters.
He actually has a narrow advantage among
female voters but trails by 28 with men.

So Corzine's got the minority vote and the goose-step Democrat vote, but has a "staggering" and "lopsided" disadvantage in virtually every other catagory.

I'm struggling to find some data on registration by party in New Jersey, but by all accounts Democratic registration outnumbers Republican registration by around 700,000. However, unaffiliated voters outnumber them both by a nice margin.

Based on the above poll numbers - in which Corzine's 10 point deficit is the lowest reported - even with every Democrat voting for Crooked Jon, there simply isn't enough crossover support for him to win re-election.

It's early yet, but in a blue state, these numbers have to scary for Team Corzine. And if they are counting on Barack Obama as his ace in the hole, well...we'll see how that goes over, especially as the president tries to remake the nation in the image of the failed People's State of New Jersey...

1 comment:

Always America First said...

This is Jersey Bro. My parents work the polls up here in an Obama neighborhood. Christie has no shot if the 10% were 20 maybe he would have had a shot. The dems have too much walking around money.