Wednesday, July 06, 2011

So How Low Is Jewish Support For Obama?

Lower than most polling indicates. Much ado was made of the Gallup poll which showed Jewish approval of the president at 60%; many took it to mean that despite concerns in and around the administration about a "Jewish problem", the Chosen Ones would fall in line come November 2012.

Interestingly enough, strategist Dick Morris did a survey of American Jews around the same time, and came up with a different number:  56%, as in how many Jews would actually vote for Obama in 2012.

Alana Goodman analyzes:

So it’s certainly plausible that 60 percent of Jewish Americans approve of Obama’s performance, while only 56 percent would currently vote to reelect him. While nobody can predict if these numbers would hold steady once an actual Republican enters the field, the finding undercuts the idea Jewish Americans would automatically side with Obama over any GOP candidate.

A few final takeaways from both polls: Gallup’s was of 350 Jewish Americans, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percent. In comparison, Morris’ poll was of 1,000 Jewish voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. Morris’ seems to have an edge here....

Now I'll analyze...

Alana points us in the right direction when she splits the hairs between "approval" and "vote for", but she's not going far enough.

It's been interesting that while Obama's job approval nationally has floated for the better part of a year in the low 40's, his personal approval has always been around 50%.

Call it "the racism skew".  While the cry of "racist" is rapidly losing its cachet as it is thrown at anyone who looks at the president askew, it is still a badge of shame few want to be burdened with, no matter how unjustly it is applied.

HOWEVER  - if one talks incessantly of how much they like the man - "he's smart, well-educated, well-spoken" - the charge of racism becomes much harder to apply.  After all, once you have extolled his virtues, loudly and publicly, it is OK to vote against him privately.  At that point, it becomes a policy issue.  "How can you call me a racist when I loved the guy?  I just think his policy prescriptions have been less than effective, and I'd like to give another guy a chance!"

I don't know if any group in America is more sensitive to the race card than our guilt-ridden, liberal Jewish population. But with the formulation above, you vote against Obama is now clean and unassailable.  Which is why I am buying the Morris report more than Gallup's....

Don't get me wrong.  I'll guess the Jewish vote in 2012 to be in the middle of the two surveys, closer to 58%, unless Obama capitulates to Bibi or bombs Tel Aviv.  But that will be a tremendous drop from the 78% he enjoyed in 2008, and will likely cost him Florida.  And possibly Pennsylvania.  And make New Jersey a lot closer.  And force him to spend money defending rather than attacking.  Money which he'll have a lot less of, especially if that fat Jew cash stays firmly in the pocket of would-be donors...

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