Friday, April 22, 2011

Larry Sabato's Alternate-Reality 2012 Electoral Map

The director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Larry Sabato - also the "go-to" guy for the mainstream media when they need to interpet results in a "Democratic" way - has released a preliminary electoral map for the 2012 elections. And what a surprise - it fits right in with the convention wisdom we've been hearing for the last few weeks, that Obama is a lock for re-election in 2012.

Take a look at his map (self-explanatory, with yellow being the "toss-up"):

Now take a look at a map of the 2010 mid-term elections:

Florida a "toss-up"? Really? In a state where Obama's approval ratings are hovering in the BP range? Wisconsin as "lean Democratic"? Ask Joanne Kloppenberg , and the stunned Wisconsin unions, about that. Same with Pennsylvania, which seems to love "fracking" for national gas, while rapidly falling out of love with one Barack Hussein Obama.

A propaganda piece? Or a work of lazy thinking and conventional wisdom in a time when both have been turned on their head?

Expect Sabato's map to be bathed in red when we look at the final results in November of 2012...

1 comment:

Eric said...

If i remember correctly the 2008 election map when broken down by districts looked a lot more red than blue as well. However, Obama beat Mcain by what some would consider a landslide because he won more electoral votes. Not to mention the popular vote. Maps broken down by district are interesting to look at but are not the always accurate indicators as to whom will win a presidential election.