Monday, November 03, 2008

The Early Vote in Nevada - Reason for Optimism?

Over at the Campaign Spot, a lot of time has been given over to early voting analysis, and the mood there is decidedly more upbeat than the depressing drumbeat of despair and premature blame that seems to reside at The Corner.

Anyway, the question is: Can the Republicans overtake Obama's early-voter lead in Nevada and still win the state?

"The ballots from early and absentee voters in Clark County show 51-percent of more than 431-thousand votes were cast by Democrats and 32-percent were from Republicans...."

....Nevada political consultant Steve Nathan has e-mailed with his latest polling results of those who have voted early in Nevada.
Their final results of calling everyone who voted early in the state put Obama ahead, 51.63 percent to 45.51 percent, with 2.87 percent going to other candidates...

With our guy down by six, why should we feel optimism (well, beside the hidden meaning of the Jets victory yesterday)? Here's why:

Obama leads by 6.12 percent in a voter pool that is about 13.1 percent more Democrats than Republicans. That would make me nervous if I were an Obama supporter, as it indicates more than a few pro-McCain Democrats casting ballots out there. If the Nevada Republicans show up and narrow that partisan breakdown to anything resembling the statewide party registration numbers – a 7 percent Democrat margin – McCain should be able to eke out a narrow victory.

If the numbers were the other way, the media would be screaming about "Obamacons". Instead, we are greeted with...silence.

Get your ass out there and vote; 'cause nothing's over...

1 comment:

knowitall said...

The early vote wasn't what won the election for the left-wing illuminati, it was the media who praised them.