Thursday, May 17, 2012

FOX Poll Showing Romney Behind An Outlier?

Seems as if the the dam was about to burst and panic was about to ensue when the New York Times published a poll showing Romney with a two-point lead over the incumbent president.  The fact that it was skewed Democratic, and buried at the bottom of page A17, gave all the more credence to the belief that even in liberal-land, the signs of impending doom could not be ignored (only desperately hidden).

The lo and behold comes a FOX poll yesterday, showing Obama leading Mitt Romney by seven points nationally, 46% to 39%.

So which poll is the outlier?  Ironically, it seems as if FOX is off the mark this time, as a few other polls have been released today mimicking the NYT  results:

Via Political Wire:

A new Washington Times/JZ Analytics poll find Mitt Romney edging President Obama nationally, 44% to 43%. Key finding: "Obama is doing fine in most categories except young voters -- those under 30 -- with whom he only has a 5 percentage-point advantage over Mr. Romney."

 Meanwhile, a YouGov/Economist poll finds Romney ahead 46% to 42%.

The Washington Times poll was conducted by John Zogby, who - like the NYT -  is known to lean a bit left, to say the least.  An interesting takeaway:

Voters also overwhelmingly think the news media is on Mr. Obama’s side, with 56 percent of them saying the media wants to see him re-elected. Strong majorities of both independents and Republicans suspect the press is rooting for Mr. Obama, and even a plurality of Democrats think reporters and editors want to see the president gain another term.

Beware, Barack:  The American people are paying attention, after all...

The YouGov poll, showing Romney with an even bigger lead, had a survey sample of 53% women and, with "leaners" included, skewed 45%-37% Democratic.  And even so, Obama only polled 42% here....

So - for the moment - ignore the FOX poll, and sit back and laugh as the Obama administration attempts to de-legitimize the Times - virtually a house organ - while pumping up the methodology of their greatest foes...

UPDATE:  The FOX poll seems to have had a heavy Democratic bias, but it points to a specific danger - and an obvious opportunity:

A newly released Fox News poll includes 42 percent Democrats and only 34 percent Republicans — an 8-point Democratic edgeand shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points (46 to 39 percent)... 

 In 2008, back when Rasmussen’s polling on party affiliation showed Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 7 percentage points (40 to 33 percent), Democratic turnout in the election exceeded GOP turnout by 7 points (39 to 32 percent) — and Obama won by 7 points (53 to 46 percent)....Now, after nearly three and a half years of Obama, Rasmussen shows party affiliation favoring Republicans by 2 points (35 to 33 percent) — a 10-point swing since the week after Inauguration Day.

 But surely the Fox News poll is right: If the Democratic party has not lost any support since 2008 (and perhaps has even gained some), Obama will win.

But it has lost support.  So...

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