Wednesday, October 03, 2012

If You Assume An Identical Turnout To 2008...Mitt and Obama Are Tied

Paul Rahe, prophet of the "massive Mitt landslide" meme, points us at the latest poll, which shows Mitt Cash and Barry The Divider tied at 47% (there's that number again - jeez, did Mitt call that one or what?):

The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.

In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.

The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.

Look at the D/R/I split again, and remember that in 2010, the split was 35/35/30.  And remember that there are almost 41 million Americans who openly declare themselves to be members of the Tea Party.  And ask yourself if the youth and African-American turnout will really be as high this year as it was during 2008, the nadir of turnout for each group.

And then imagine what this poll would look like if these factors were taken into account.  Like Rahe does:

If you were to readjust this poll by reducing slightly the black turnout and by a bit more the Hispanic turnout and if you were to assume a much closer partisan divide of the sort shown by, say, Rasmussen, Romney would be ahead by a comfortable margin -- which is what I take to be the case.

"Count it - 5.  That's my margin of victory, bitches..."

Tonight's debates aren't a final shot for Romney, a "hail Mary" that he needs to complete to pull out the win. It's the last chance for Barack Obama to prove himself to be the man the media painted him as in 2008 - intelligent, thoughtful, bipartisan, a uniter. Failing that, the incumbent will be in deep, deep trouble.

And the release of a certain video isn't going to help him any, either...

Sweating much, Barry?

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