Tuesday, May 22, 2012

The Incredible Shrinking Sample Size of Republican Voters In MSM Polling

If people don't like the president or his policies,  just...don't poll them.

The Washington Post gives us this headline, which no doubt they believe is a negative for Romney:

Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat on economy 

 The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent... ...

One key indicator has hardly budged this year: Asked where they stand financially compared with when Obama took office in January 2009, 30 percent say they are worse off, and only 16 percent say they are better off.

With a 3.5+/- margin of error, it seems as if the boys are deadlocked.  But only if you don't look at the sampling used by the WaPo pollsters to come up with these less-than-stellar results for the incumbent.  Hot Air:

Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican. Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout. In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.

Take a close look at the Republican representation in WaPo/ABC polls this year. Starting in January, that has been 25%, 23%, 27%, 23%, and now 22%.

Even with this poor sampling, though, Obama can’t gain any momentum. His job approval dropped in this series from 50/45 to 47/49. His rating on the economy sank to 42/55, not as bad as March’s 38/59 but slipping from last month’s 44/54. Among all adults (as in the preceding figures), Obama only leads Romney by 4, 49/45 — and a Democrat who can’t get to 50% among general-population adults is in serious trouble. The 49/46 comes from registered voters, with its substantial handicap among Republicans.

So while in reality the Republican turnout figure on election day has increased over 20% from 2008 to 2010, the WaPo pollsters have decreased their numbers by 37% in their sample.  And they still get a president who can't break 50% in their polls, and whom respondents claim has not helped improved their lives by a freakin' smidgen of the last 3+ years...

Maybe the media should just drop the charade, and  simply interview only Democrats and claimed "independents" for their polling purposes.  Maybe then you'll see Barack Obama surpass a 50% approval rating, and take some sort of a real lead on Mitt Romney.


(More from The Weekly Standard and NRO's Campaign Spot on the oddities of this poll...)

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I don't pay attention to national polls, they are meaningless in a state by state election. I care about how voters feel in Ohio, Florida, virginia .......These polls are done to drive traffic to the various media websites and are massaged by these biased outfits.