Saturday, May 29, 2010

2010: Worst Hurricane Season Ever? Puh-leeze...

And the media frenzy begins over the annual predictions of a summer of KillStormz:

U.S. officials warned Thursday that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may be one of the worst on record.

Officials said that an "active to extremely active" hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes, three to seven of which were likely to be "major" storms consisting of at least 111 mph winds.

This is compared to an average of 11 named storms, six of which became hurricanes and two of those become major.

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco told AFP News.

Hurricanes are particularly a threat this year because of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, where millions of gallons of crude have been leaking since the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig exploded on April 21.

Since when do oil spills increase the frequency and strength of tropical storms? Since Democrats took office, I suppose...

As a public service, I would like to remind everyone who has short-term memory issues or a brain addled by years of marijuana smoke, that we get this prediction virtually every single spring. And how has it panned out?

Let's go back to 2006, where the nation's meteorologists sung in unison:

With the official start of hurricane season days away, meteorologists are unanimous that the 2006 tropical storm season, which runs from June 1 through November, is likely to be a doozy...

How'd that work out?

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season officially ran from June 1 to November 30, 2006. It was significantly less active than the previous season, was the first since 2001 in which no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, and was the first since 1994 that no tropical cyclones formed during October...

And after dire predictions or 2007, we got this:

2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date...

Moving ahead to 2009:

On December 10, 2008, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2009 season, predicting above-average activity...

Which gave us:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average year in which nine tropical storms formed, the fewest since the 1997 season.

Folks, we've seen this movie before. It's called Scooby-Doo vs. Whomever, where a creepy monster that scares the beejesus out of everyone turns out to be the old groundskeeper, with a grudge against an old maple tree....

There's always a chance for a rough hurricane season. But scientists claiming they can predict the season are like a gambler with a system - maybe a few quick, lucky wins, always offset by massive losses, and maintained by excuses and lies.

So relax, grab a beach chair, and enjoy the sun and surf. The JerseyNut is telling you it's all gonna be OK...

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Hurricanes are particularly a threat this year because of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico... Since when do oil spills increase the frequency and strength of tropical storms"

wow... what a naive statement. of course there is no link between the two, and i don't think that it was even implied. the threat lies in the spread of oil across a larger area DUE TO the storms/hurricanse.

The JerseyNut said...

If that is the case - and granted, that is the common-sense explanation - then the article should have expounded on the threat, as opposed to leaving it to hang there. It would be remiss of me to assume they are referring to something which they could easily have written extensively about, but choose not to...

That being said, see the link below for a scenarios where not a hurricane, but a tsunami caused by a rupturing of the Gulf floor (due to BP's ruptured rig) could cause a wave of oil to coat miles of inland areas of the Gulf states with s slick black sheen...

http://jerseynut.blogspot.com/2010/07/gulf-oil-spill-conspiracy-seep-and-weep.html

Anonymous said...

More scare tactics in order to push the failed meme of "global warming". This season will likely be no better or worse than any other, and next year we will hear all the same bullshit all over again.