Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Referendum Day

Yeah, I know, it's only a "referendum election" when the Democrats win. But for the 99% outside of the media bubble, today will be an interesting day, especially if you are watching these 2-3 races:

Pennsylvania’s 12th District Special House Election: Republican Tim Burns v. Democrat Mark "Murtha" Critz: A solid democratic district who has swallowed drums full of taxpayer pork of the years, a repudiation of Critz -who promises to keep the lard flowing - will say less about Obama's coat-tails and more about the willingness of the average American to steal from his neighbor, and incur bills that they know are rapidly coming due. Should Burns win (and we say yes, but only by +1, as the Senatorial primary in Pennsylvania will bring out extra Dems), it cannot be spun as anything save for a rejection of tax and spend policies, and as a foreshadowing of Republican voter engagement.

Pennsylvania Senate primary, Democrats: Joe Sestak vs. Arlen Specter: Will Sestak's upstart win over the ultimate opportunist, the incumbent insider Specter, be considered as evidence that the Democratic party has become "unglued"? No, that's only when Republicans toss incumbents!

Also file in this category the Arkansas Democratic Senate Primary between embattled incumbent Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter. Should Lincoln lose (unlikely, but it may be close), will this be a referendum on Obama's policies, since Lincoln has at least expressed token opposition? You betcha! Will it show the Democratic party as becoming "unglued"? Why, not at all!

Watch the spin to look for the win. Right now, the media is saying that these contests (like the ones on Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts) mean nothing. In other words - they mean everything to a weakened incumbent and flailing administration.

It's gonna be an interesting day, all right...

No comments: