Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Trouble for Hillary in New Jersey?

Red Generation tells us why:

Yesterday, supporters of Hillary Clinton, including Governor Corzine, gathered in Elizabeth to celebrate what many perceive as a united front in the Garden State backing the Senator from across the Hudson.

…this event demonstrated the fault lines in NJ and in some ways national Democratic politics. For one, why was the event held in New Jersey’s fourth-largest city? Because the leaders of the two largest cities, Mayor Cory Booker of Newark and Mayor Jeremiah Jersey City, are backing Barack Obama for President in 2008.

Moreover, the leaders in the three other flagship counties for Democrats are not backing Hillary for President. Bergen’s 109,000 Democrats, Passaic’s 53,300 and Middlesex’s 118,000 have party leaders that may or have endorsed other candidates

And is Corzine emulating another famous New Jersey politician?

Perhaps Senators Menendez and Lautenberg were smart to stay away. This could be like McGreevey’s ill-fated endorsement of Dean in 2004...

We still think here that Hillary will win the nomination nationally, but as Jersey is a mix of large urban areas and large suburban areas, the Obama/Clinton contest will be tightly contested in this state…the scary question is, will their be a black/white schism within the Democratic voters of New Jersey?

Doesn’t matter, for two reasons. One, the Democrats will fall in line behind the eventual nominee anyway -only the diehard few will "stay away" on election day because their candidate is not available. Two, if Rudy wins the Republican nomination, he’ll take New Jersey. Narrowly, but undoubtedly. Too many ex-New Yorkers here who remember how Rudy raised New York City from the dead, while the many Jersey independents who would only vote Hillary whilst holding their noses will be thrilled to have a centrist choice.


But one wonders - in how many other states will Hillary face this type of racial divide? White governors holding Hillary’s hand up high, while big-city mayors stand shoulder to shoulder with Barak Obama? Should be interesting to see how the "big-tent" party holds together…

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