Tuesday, September 16, 2008

New Jersey/McCain: Just flirting? Or is it more?

OK, here's another poll that shows McCain within striking distance of Barack Obama in New Jersey:

THE POLL: Quinnipiac University, presidential race in New Jersey of likely voters. (The state has 15 electoral votes.)

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 48 percent, John McCain 45 percent.

OF INTEREST: Obama's lead has dropped 7 percentage points from last month when the same poll found the Democrat ahead of McCain, 51 percent to 41 percent. McCain gained ground with men, who favor the Arizona senator over Obama, 53 percent to 40 percent. Men were almost divided between the candidates in last month's poll. McCain has a 19-point lead with white voters. Obama has strong support from women, blacks and younger voters.

DETAILS: Conducted Sept. 10-14 with 1,187 likely New Jersey voters. Sampling error margin plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

One poll is a fluke, two is a coincidence....but if I see a third......

Look, these numbers are exactly the same as the Marist Poll released last week. Both had a +/- of 3% as well, meaning back to back polls have the race tied. With Obama's lead in Blue York now down to only 5% (in a poll with a 4% margin of error), one can make an argument that we are seeing a trend here, and that Obama's voters now are strictly limited to dyed-blue Democrats.

Some of it could be disaffection with the Democrats as well. Most New Jerseyans would just as soon spit at Jon Corzine as would look at him, and the New York Democratic party has had its share of woes lately (paging Elliot Spitzer!), not to mention having its favorite adopted daughter (Hillary) rejected by the party.

But can the turnout of the New Jersey suburbanites top the turnout of Corzine's union armies, Obama's brainwashed Rutgers undergrads, and ACORN's voters of dubious registration? That will be the difference maker in the Garden State, and I am not counting on it.

But again: If this is what is happening in New York and New Jersey, what is going on in the "swing states"? I think that Obama's internal polling numbers must be terrifying; hence the stench of panic emanating from the campaign, and the shrieking madness being voiced by the media.

Smells like....Republican victory.


Erica said...

As the Heebs have been known to say: "Fun dein mol in Gott's oiren."

I really hope your instincts are correct.

Jkw said...

It would help if the Republican's campaigned in Jersey.