DEBKA's analysis:
Bush Wants the Hizballah-Israel War to Give Iran a Bloody Nose
This poker game between Tehran and Washington is going back and forth over the heads of Israel and Lebanon...
The green light flashing in Washington may give Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert a latitude never before granted any Israeli premier. But it also tells the Islamic Republic that its rulers’ meddling in Iraq carries a high price tag. By pulverizing Iran’s surrogate, Israel is articulating America’s determination to smash Iran’s strength and positions of influence around the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
DEBKA claims that this determination came from a recent incident in Iraq:
This determination was sparked by an unnoticed incident in Iraq on July 4, 2006.
On that day, for the first time in the Iraq War, Nasrallah activated the three-year old sleeper terror and sabotage networks Iranian and Hizballah intelligence had established across Iraq shortly after the US invasion. He was obeying orders from Iranian supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
America’s Day of Independence 2006 was selected for this group to make its first low-key attacks against US forces in Baghdad and British units in Basra and break surface under the name of The Abu al Fadal al Abas Brigades. No one had heard of it because Tehran had kept this Iraqi arm of Hizballah dark as the ultimate weapon to spring on the Americans in Iraq at the appropriate moment....
That was the last straw, but George W. Bush turned it around as a boomerang to hit Tehran. The Israeli Defense Forces, there to hand, were more than ready to punish Hizballah and had been raring to go after five years of forced restraint against the Lebanese group and Palestinian terrorists. For Bush, this course offered America the chance of a bold, efficient blow against a Shiite extremist terrorist group without a single American soldier having to step onto the battlefield....
Can Bush be this clever???
However, the unacknowledged object of Israel’s campaign is none of the highly rational goals outlined by officials. It is to satisfy Washington that Tehran has been given a bloody nose and is ready to pull back from its deepening political, military and intelligence interference in Iraq.
To this end, Bush decided to let the armed forces of the Jewish state strike out against a fundamentalist Islamic force. For Israel, this is a first, a chance awaited since the first Gulf War of 1991 to get its own back on the radical Arab assailants besetting the country...
It's like a mini cold-war, with Israel as a US proxy/ally fighting the proxies/allies of Iran; be they Hezbollah, Hamas, or Syria. Meanwhile, the U.S. takes on insurgents and terrorists in Iraq, with stakes higher than anyone in the media (or Democratic Party) can fathom - the winner in the Iraqi War gets to forcibly reshape the Middle East for the next decade.
Who's strategy do you like now - W's; or John Murtha's?
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