Via the Colorado Secretary of State: 653,000 Democrats cast early ballots, while 688,000 Republicans tossed theirs in early, as did 547,000 unaffiliated voters.
Ignoring the 20,000 Greens and what-nots, you have the following percentages (very, very slightly rounded):
Democrats: 34.5%
Republicans: 36.5%
Independents: 29%
That gives the Republicans a 2% point lead in early votes. Now apply the 57% Romney /43% Obama independent split seen in most recent national polls, and apply it to the current Colorado vote totals, and you get the following:
Obama / Democrats: 888,000
Romney / Republicans: 1,000,000
Now let's look at the early voting totals for 2008, and see how the percentages panned out for the 1.7 million votes cast:
Dem 37.7%: 641,000 (with Obama's 52% of Independent vote = 874,000)
Rep 35.9%: 610,000 (with McCain's 48% of Independent vote - 825,000)
No/Oth 26.4%: 448,000
So the Republicans went from entering Election Day 2008 with nearly a 50,000 vote deficit, to opening Election Day 2012 with a 110,000 vote advantage.
That's a swing of 160,000 votes.
Here's the Colorado final results from 2008:
Obama: 1,216,000
McCain: 1,020,000
An Obama win by 196,000 votes.
Think we can dig up and additional 36,000 votes somewhere, in a year where hope and change has become fear and loathing, in a year when Republicans and independents appear willing to crawl over broken glass to vote Romney, in a year where the magnitude of our folly grows clearer with every passing day?
Oh, you betcha.
Colorado goes Mitt. In a walk....
No comments:
Post a Comment