On those wacky weighting of the polls to give the Democrats an 8-12 point turnout advantage -you know, the one that has never happened, ever, in all of American history, but the pollsters have decided to apply this year:
...the real drama to this election is being provided not by the candidates but the polling community. By which I mean the decision they made to stake out — as Campaign Spot has noted — a remarkably bold position, that the Democratic Party turnout is not only going to exceed a recent historic advantage of 4 percent but go to 6.5 percent (Rasmussen) to 8 percent in many polls to even 12 percent in one.
I keep looking for the justification for this. Not easy to find. Rather like the academics' one-time belief in the Aristotlean spheres and an earth-centered universe, it just seems to be a pretty good working theory — some sort of way to make sense of observable phenomena and keep all the smart people talking agreeably and pleasantly among themselves.
Did the Democrats make the mistake of fighting this election on the basis of a lesson learned in the last one? And then persuade everyone else this was the key to understanding the political universe. And by everyone I mean the polling companies...
We'll see tomorrow, I reckon...
2 comments:
As a marketing research professional - albeit not a pollster - I find the wild differences from poll to poll remarkable. At the very least, you are right to call into question their methods.
That said, if McCain pulls this off tomorrow, I don't know if I'll be more happy that Obama lost...or that the media will have had it completely wrong.
It sure was phony, just as phony as the left-wing illuminati and the many promises they've made.
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