Poll Watching on Election Eve...

As long as there is still hope; I remain optimistic. Some poll reporting/analysis at The Corner:

The Gallup poll is out; in two weeks, the Dem's advantage on the generic ballot has narrowed from 13 points to 7 points.

But:

"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive...

More:

Survey USA certainly made a lot of Republicans feel better last night.

CA-50: SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (10/13-15 results)
Bilbray (R) 55 (49)Busby (D) 41 (46)

CO-5: SurveyUSA.11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (10/16-18 results)
Lamborn (R) 51 (51)Fawcett (D) 42 (38)

FL-9: SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (10/16-18 results)
Bilirakis (R) 53 (57)Busansky (D) 41 (36)

MN-6: SurveyUSA. 11/4. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (10/22-24 results)
Bachmann (R) 49 (49)Wetterling (D) 42 (43)
"In 4 SurveyUSA KSTP-TV tracking polls, Bachmann has never trailed. Wetterling closed to within 3 points on 10/9, during the height of the publicity over the Mark Foley story, but on 10/25 Bachmann led by 6 points and today, 3 days to the vote, Bachman leads by 7 points, 49% to 42%."

NY-26: SurveyUSA. 11/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (10/23-25 results)
Reynolds (R) 50 (50)Davis (D) 46 (45)
"Republican Tom Reynolds appears to survive a scare from Democrat Jack Davis, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 470 likely voters conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo.

But:

Now, no Republican should get cocky; those polls were conducted in prime Kerry fallout time. But these are all usually safe Republican seats that looked a little shaky this year, but seem to be stabilizing.

Yet more polling madness!

Boy, today's Mason Dixon polls do nothing to dissuade the notion of a late-breaking shift back to the Republicans...
Mason-Dixon has a good reputation among political professionals - if they're not always right, they almost never give you a really wacky result. In 2004, they got 13 out of 14 swing states right at the presidential level (they put Bush up in Minnesota) and were pretty spot-on in their margin of victory.

The real shocker is M-D has Chafee ahead by one point. I heard a Globe reporter saying the Democrats were worried about Rhode Island, and thought it was interesting but didn't quite buy it. Everybody's had this one as an automatic Democratic pickup; if this seat slips through their fingers, it's like the number 15 team beating the number 2 team in the NCAA basketball tournament; it wrecks a lot of office pools.
M-D has Missouri close (surprise) but the trend is interesting, from McCaskill up 3 late last month to up 1. I'm hearing that Talent's internal numbers are fantastic - for whatever that's worth - and that the cloning referendum has the GOP base revved.

Stop here if you need a breath, and go to Gateway Pundit, who has seven solid reasons why McCaskill is Missouri roadkill tomorrow. Ready now? Let's keep rolling:

M-D concurs with the emerging consensus in Maryland, virtual tie; they have Cardin up 3 after having Cardin up 6 two weeks ago.

Montana's tied. Guess we know what had the Montana Democrats sweating earlier this week.

In Tennessee, M-D has Corker up 12, 50 percent to 38 percent. If Corker wins big, I'm going to want to rub Newsweek's noses in it for that glowing, heroic cover piece they ran on Harold Ford Jr. Anoint him the Golden Child after he's won, not before.

My stomach hurts! Still, I'll end with an ominous reminder:

Jerry Ford had a huge amount of momentum in the closing days of the 1976 campaign, so much so that Time Magazine had to prepare two covers for the post-election issue, one for each presidential candidate. But not enough. The result was Jimmy Carter and Carter's legacies in Iran and North Korea.

Let us bow our heads and pray...