Rasmussen (+17)
CNN (+22)
Monmouth (+16)
ARG (+12)
In 2008, John McCain was -2 with independents, the electorate was +8 Democratic, and he lost 53%-47%.
Let's take the lowest number of pro-Romney independents above - Romney +12.
And then let's adjust the electorate to smooth out the historic aberration that was the 2008 turnout. Here's a handy chart:
Jay Cost wants to call 2012 as a D+3, which I think hits it about right. Normally, I'd go D+4, maybe better, but no matter how much Barack shrieks about revenge, it doesn't seem as if the dispirited Democratic party faithful are as motivated by fear and hate as they were by hope and change.
So you tell me: In a year in which the independent vote is swinging from D+2 to R+12, where the Democratic electoral identification will be cut in half, at a time when the Republican/Independent voters are motivated as hell...how can Mitt Romney lose the election?
He can't. And he won't. So relax. And feel free to start planning your victory drink; and have your celebratory toast ready to go by no later than 1130pm tomorrow night...
CNN (+22)
Monmouth (+16)
ARG (+12)
In 2008, John McCain was -2 with independents, the electorate was +8 Democratic, and he lost 53%-47%.
Let's take the lowest number of pro-Romney independents above - Romney +12.
And then let's adjust the electorate to smooth out the historic aberration that was the 2008 turnout. Here's a handy chart:
Jay Cost wants to call 2012 as a D+3, which I think hits it about right. Normally, I'd go D+4, maybe better, but no matter how much Barack shrieks about revenge, it doesn't seem as if the dispirited Democratic party faithful are as motivated by fear and hate as they were by hope and change.
So you tell me: In a year in which the independent vote is swinging from D+2 to R+12, where the Democratic electoral identification will be cut in half, at a time when the Republican/Independent voters are motivated as hell...how can Mitt Romney lose the election?
He can't. And he won't. So relax. And feel free to start planning your victory drink; and have your celebratory toast ready to go by no later than 1130pm tomorrow night...
Your lips or shall I say fingertips to Gods ears! I banking on Mitt for a win. :)
ReplyDeleteEvery poll that shows a tie or a win for Obama uses an exaggerated Democratic counterweight against Romney's huge independent advantage. CNN's poll, released yesterday, shows a R/O tie..with a D+11 skew!
ReplyDeletehttp://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/05/cnn-polling-2-2-11/
No fears, Bren....we'll be partying tomorrow like it's 1980! Or at least 2004...
If I may throw a little cold water? Speaking of 2004, didn't they say Kerry could not lose due to his lead among the indys?
ReplyDeleteI am a Romney guy too, but I am much more nervous!