McCain's Coming Victory - A Few Scenarios...

Oh, McCain's got more than a good shot, he's looking better and better by the minute - even the MSM is starting to hedge its bets just a teeny bit. Still, there are a number of different scenarios in which a McCain victory is not just possible, but quite likely. Vox Populi busts one out:

In general, if a Democrat leads by less than five points in the polls, he loses. (see this post - ed.)

Look at the states that would flip to McCain if the 5% adjustment holds true:
Colorado: Obama +4.3
North Carolina: Obama +0.5
Nevada: Obama +2.6
Ohio: Obama +2.1
Virginia: Obama +4.4

... it looks as if McCain will not only win, but will win by a larger margin in the electoral college than George W. Bush did. Also note that during the primary voting, Obama's exit polling was overestimated by SEVEN percent on average.

A second good point - look for the bead of sweat dripping down the confident forehead:

...the anxious actions of the Obama campaign belie the seemingly serene confidence of the Obama candidate. Obama's success in building a political career has largely been based on illusion, and I think the air of calm assurance that he's been projecting is a false one.

Bob Krumm has some state-by-state thoughts that are worth repeating as well; here's a few of them:

Colorado: Bush won here by almost five. Barack Obama thinks that, along with Iowa, the Rocky Mountain State is his best chance for a pickup. The youth vote in Boulder and Denver will be up this year. So too will be the military vote in Colorado Springs and the rancher/farmer/landowner vote everywhere else. Net effect: some change in the Democratic direction, but not enough to swing the state. McCain by two.

Georgia, North Carolina, and the rest of the Deep South: Black turnout for Obama will be huge. It won’t be enough. Not even close. McCain will win the Tarheel State by eight points. The rest of the states between South Carolina and Louisiana will select him by ten points plus.

Indiana: In spite even of the fact that more people will vote in Lake County than live there, this is still a reliably red state. Bush won the Hoosier State by 21 points. However, Tuesday afternoon’s leaked exit polls will indicate that in Indiana Obama is leading McCain. Indiana’s polls are among the first in the nation to close. MSNBC will call the state for Obama soon after the polls close. They want to call it early in order to depress turnout in places like Colorado where polls will remain open three hours longer. Objectivity be damned. The other networks will be more cautious.

Missouri: The “Show me” state won’t like what Obama has shown them. McCain will clear the 50% hurdle.

New Hampshire: John Kerry won here by a margin of 1.3%. But Kerry was from Massachusetts whose Boston media market blankets the southern third of the Granite State...

Virginia: Lots of newly registered voters helps Obama, right? Not exactly. A large number of them are newly registered to vote in red counties. A lot of them are military voters in Tidewater and DC, who this year registered to vote in VA instead of their home states.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania won’t be called until late. It won’t be decided until the courts have spoken. That’s not good news for Republicans if the state’s 21 electoral votes make the difference. (The Philadelphia machine plays dirty.)

Both of these models, though, would likely have the Republican candidate getting the required 270 electoral votes to win, but losing the popular vote by over a million (due to increased turnout in already-blue states).

Boy, won' t that be fun!