Election Tea Leaves !

I know, the media has already told us the fat lady has sung, and the Democrats will retake both chambers of Congress next week, and we will all be led into a blissful future by Nancy Pelosi. So stay home, Republican voters (please?), 'cause your vote won't count anyway.

Or will it? Some points to ponder, tea leaves to turn, tarot cards to be studied, I-ching trinkets to be gazed upon...first, from Gay Orbit:

The polls say Democrats. Karl Rove, appearing on All Things Considered today, says Republicans will win. So, who do you believe?
I’m somewhat more inclined to take Rove seriously. It’s not that I want Democrats to lose in November, but I know a lot about Karl Rove, and I know a bit about polls. Most of us look at national polls. But most political strategists will readily admit that Karl Rove is no idiot. He doesn’t look at national polls. He looks at local polls, district polls, neighborhood polls.

...districts are not divided up proportionately by population. A Congressional district in New York may have twice as many Democrats as a Congressional district in Alabama that is largely Republican. So while it may take a million Democratic votes to get a Democrat in in NYC, it may take a hundred thousand votes to get the Republican in in Alabama. If you took a poll of just those two districts, you’d have the Democrats winning by a landslide by virtue of their NYC votes.

That's simply Polling 101, but the media doesn't want to split hairs; it want to plant a perception, and set up a vote controversy should the Democrats fail once again.

Ann Althouse sifts through the box office reciepts, and sees Elephants:

Newmarket's very controversial Death of a President (91 theaters) did only $.06 mil Friday with a pathetic per screen average of $673 for should be a $0.21 weekend. The Weinstein Company's Dixie Chicks documentary Shut Up & Sing (4 theaters) took in $0.01 mil Friday and a disappointing $2,867 per screen average for what should be a $.04 mil weekend.

Where's the outrage? Or maybe less people have Bush assasination fantasies than the liberals think....
And is the media getting a bit nervous that despite all of their frantic spinning, their party might still lose it? From The Times:

Democrats are pushing into high gear this weekend a sharply expanded campaign to get their voters to the polls, even as some party leaders expressed anxiety that Republicans would again out-organize them in the approximately 20 House and 3 Senate races that both sides agree will determine the outcome of the midterm elections.

And here's where they agree with Gay Orbit:

Notwithstanding polls that show broad Democratic strength, control of Congress appears to rest on a relatively few races in which the candidates are separated by razor-thin margins. Those are precisely the kinds of races where turnout efforts can make a difference, and the Republicans’ track record on getting their supporters to the polls in districts they focus on is a primary reason that the White House continues to express confidence that it can at least limit Democratic gains this year.

Getting another million Democrats to turn out in NYC ain't gonna give you Congress, boys...
And more poll-fudging by the Washington Post, who obviously didn't get the memo....they bray about a ten-point Democratic lead in the Senate and Governer's races. Bo Harmon, campaign manager for incumbant Governer Robert L. Ehrlich Jr, goes justifiably nuts:

"It is simply unrealistic to think that a governor with approval ratings as high as this, who has provided record education funding and cut crime around the state is losing by 10 points to the mayor of the deadliest city in the country," said Bo Harmon, Ehrlich's campaign manager.
Harmon also called the poll's demographics "wildly skewed" since the results reflected few undecided voters...

The Corner notes:

From Rasmussen Reports: Maryland: Both races are getting a bit tighter in Maryland. Ben Cardin (D) now leads Michael Steele (R) 49% to 42%. However, when leaners are included, it's Cardin by just five points, 50% to 45%. Two weeks ago , it was Cardin by nine.

The Washington Post concedes:

In a follow-up question, about 15 percent of each candidate's supporters said there was a chance they could change their minds by Election Day....
The poll is not a prediction of Election Day but a portrait of the Maryland political landscape completed 12 days before voters go to the polls. Last-minute developments, campaign spending, get-out-the-vote efforts and enthusiasm for the candidates all could affect the final results.

So OK, your poll is just...bullspit. Thanks for burying it under your headline predicting a big Democratic win in Maryland, though. And from the poll itself, question #2 jumps right out at me:

2. Are you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something else?
Dem. 56% Rep. 30% Ind. 11% Something else 3% No opinion 1%

Is the Democrat- to - Republican skew that high in Maryland? And if so, why is a state that claims to be only 30% (registered) Republican giving close to 45% of its votes (in this "poll") to Republican candidates? That's more than (allegedly) all of the Republicans and Independants combined...so what is up with that?

Now, there's a story that might be worth investigating...but I'll reckon that after some "November suprises", we'll more likely hear wide-eyed accusations of voter fraud than media admissions of inaccurate and/or lazy polling...